In 1900, Otis T. Mason predicted that we would no longer need stairs because of the introduction of a pair of small elevators, which, being perfectly automatic, would require no attendant.

Now that the end of the world has come and gone—again—we really must get serious about planning.

It would help if we could just get a good idea of what will happen in the future. Unfortunately there seems to be a shortage of dependable predicting these days.

Some will argue that forecasting in the 21st century is particularly difficult because of the rapid rate of change. American politics, technology, and society have all evolved so much in recent years, it’s nearly impossible to see what will happen next. But, as this 1900 article shows, it’s possible to make some fairly reliable predictions even in the middle of disruptive times.

Americans at the turn of the century had seen change on a scale we might appreciate today. The U.S. was just starting to realize the global power of its wealth. Progressive politics was changing government and society. And technology was introducing such epoch-defining products as the telephone, the automobile, the phonograph, and the motion picture.

Yet even in this unprecedented age, Otis Tufton Mason managed to accurately predict home life in the future. A curator at the Smithsonian Institution in 1900 (like John Elfreth Watkins, another uncanny predictor) Mason’s “The Dwelling House of the Twentieth Century” described some of the features of the American home in 1950.

• Central power: Electrical energy “comes in a single current through a heavy wire from a distributing station, and on the premises is split up as required for heating, for lighting, for cooking, etc.” A network of copper wires runs through the home, hidden behind moldings and decoration, to carry power for lights, heaters, and appliance throughout the house.

• Central heating: Instead of shoveling coal into a furnace, homeowners would only have to “set the automatic governor of the heating apparatus at seventy-two degrees, let us say, and the temperature of the whole establishment is maintained at that point for months.”

• Central air conditioning: Cooling will be just as common as heating. It, too, would be “perfectly automatic” so that a single control would keep the temperature always at the same point.

• Modern lighting: Rooms would no longer be illumined by a single, bare gas jet in the middle of the ceiling, leaving one part of a room bright and the rest in relative darkness. Instead, electric bulbs would provide shaded and indirect light for “a warm and cheerful glow” throughout a room.

• Better food packaging: Women would buy groceries in “insect-proof packages” and store perishable food items in a electronically cooled storage compartment.” (This was still the age of iceboxes; the modern refrigerator wasn’t even developed for another 13 years.)

• The energy-efficient kitchen: No more smoke, coal, ashes, or fire that needed constant tending and feeding. “No time is lost in kindling fires. … When a meal is to be prepared, the current is turned on by a twist of a button, and immediately the electric range is ready for service.” And many kitchen chores, like mixing and beating, would be performed by electric appliances.

• Modern furniture: The massive, Victorian-era furniture would be long gone. In its place, would be tables, chairs, and dressers made of the lightest material possible so they can be easily moved and will take up far less space. (They will also decorate their homes with “photographs in natural colors.”)

• Cleaner roads: Automobiles—vastly superior and safer—would replace horses, eliminating the problem of manure, which bred flies and spread disease.

• Environmental concerns: Homeowners would consider the air and water around their home as part of their property, and would regard other people’s smoke or pollution “as an infringement and a cause of action for trespass.”

Mason was certainly not infallible. He predicted homes would be cooled by “liquid air” instead of refrigeration. Homes would not include cellars because occupants no longer needed storage space for coal or firewood. Most Americans would still rely on domestic servants and use elevators instead of stairs.

Still, more than 60 percent of his predictions proved correct—an average any modern forecaster would be proud of.

How the 1950 Home Looked in 1900 The Saturday Evening Post

If you correctly foresee events a century before they occur, none of your contemporaries will still be alive to remember your predictions. Furthermore, the marvels you forecast—manned flight, say, or the internet—will seem inevitable and obvious after the fact, robbing you of any credit for foresight. And if you’re wrong, you’ll probably sound ridiculous.

Yet each new year, a new batch of predictors offer us their forecasts for the future. Most are promptly forgotten. One who deserves to be remembered, though, is John Elfreth Watkins, Jr., a Post writer in the early 20th Century.  Back in December 1900, he wrote his ideas about “What May Happen in the Next Hundred Years” for the Post’s sister publication, the Ladies’ Home Journal.

Where he was wrong, he was very, very wrong:

A cynical view of the future from 1898, entitled "A Sunny Day in 1910."

Nicaragua (i.e. Panama) will ask for admission to our Union after the completion of the great canal. Mexico will be next. Europe, seeking more territory to the south of us, will cause many of the South and Central American republics to be voted into the Union by their own people.

There will be No C, X or Q in our every-day alphabet. They will be abandoned because unnecessary.

Mosquitoes, house-flies and roaches will have been practically exterminated… There will be no wild animals except in menageries. Rats and mice will have been exterminated. The horse will have become practically extinct.

A man or woman unable to walk ten miles at a stretch will be regarded as a weakling.

A university education will be free to every man and woman.

Food will be served hot or cold to private houses in pneumatic tubes… The meal being over, the dishes used will be packed and returned to the cooking establishments where they will be washed… These tubes will collect, deliver and transport mail over certain distances, perhaps for hundreds of miles.

But this selection is hardly fair to Watkins. Some of his predictions were only partly wrong.

Trains will run two miles a minute, normally; express trains one hundred and fifty miles an hour.

High-speed trains are traveling over 300 mph. Just not in the United States.

Automobiles will be cheaper than horses are today.

This is just barely true. In 1900, work horses sold for $225 to $250. Adjusting for inflation, that price is approximately $6400, which will buy a new, low-end, import, budget car.

[The future American] will live fifty years instead of thirty-five as at present.

In fact, the overall life expectancy in 1900 was 47.8 years. And in 2000, it was 77.

There will probably be from 350,000,000 to 500,000,000 people in America and its possessions by the lapse of another century.

The figure is high, but at least Watkins was guessing in the right direction. America’s population had grown 14000% between 1800 and 1900. If that rate had continued, the total would have exceeded 1 billion in 2000. Instead, it grew just 360%, reaching 280 million at the start of the new century.

Where Watkins was correct, however, he was unusually far-sighted.

Americans will be taller by from one to two inches.

The average American male in 1900 was 66-67” tall. By 2000, the average was 69”.

Photographs will reproduce all of nature’s colors… [They will be transmitted] from any distance. If there be a battle in China a hundred years hence, snapshots of its most striking events will be published in the newspapers an hour later.

Wireless telephone and telegraph circuits will span the world. A husband in the middle of the Atlantic will be able to converse with his wife sitting in her boudoir in Chicago. We will be able to telephone to China quite as readily as we now talk from New York to Brooklyn.

Man will see around the world. Persons and things of all kinds will be brought within focus of cameras connected electrically with screens at opposite ends of circuits, thousands of miles at a span.

Rising early to build the furnace fire will be a task of the olden times. Homes will have no chimneys, because no smoke will be created within their walls.

Refrigerators will keep great quantities of food fresh for long intervals.

Fast-flying refrigerators on land and sea will bring delicious fruits from the tropics and southern temperate zone within a few days. The farmers of South America… whose seasons are directly opposite to ours, will thus supply us in winter with fresh summer foods which cannot be grown here.

There is one last peculiarity to Watkins’ article.

Every one of his predictions involved an improvement in the lives of Americans. He saw only positive change in the new century. Today’s predictors don’t see the future so optimistically, but will they see it as clearly as Watkins?

The Predictor Who Got It Right (Mostly) The Saturday Evening Post

We found Saturday Evening Post New Year’s cartoons back as far as 1953 – and they’re still funny!

"If the job ages you that fast, I’m not sure I want it."
from December 1980

"I can’t go to bed! Mr. Ambruster got there first."
from January 30, 1960

We don’t know what was in those drinks, but Mr. Ambruster didn’t even make it until little Billy’s bedtime.

"Greetings, whoever you are."
from January 30, 1960

You don’t want to know.

"What happened to the first?"
from January 2, 1954

Mr. Ambruster, we presume.

"Happy New Year."
from January 3, 1953

I don’t even mind admitting that this is more like my New Year’s.

"Mommy didn’t think she had that much fun over the holidays!"
from January/February 1996

It’s the teddy bear.

Cartoons: Happy New Year! The Saturday Evening Post

No Desserts by Constantin Alajalov

No Desserts
Constantin Alajolov
March 12, 1948

Probably the number one New Year’s resolution is to lose weight. That’s what this lady is working on and she’s obviously none too happy about it. This is from 1948, but we’ll tell you something, lady: dieting in 2011 is no more fun – and with all our pills, online programs and progress – no easier.

Reduce to Music by Frederick Stanley

Reduce to Music
Frederic Stanley
August 2, 1924

This gentleman from 1924 is taking up an exercise program. It looks like early aerobics, before the days of “The Biggest Loser” and celebrity spokespeople looking svelte after losing weight due to the Brand “X” weight-loss program. With no such inspiration to spur him on, he’s trying it the roaring twenties way.

Saving for War Bonds by Preston Duncan

Saving for War Bonds
Preston Duncan
May 2, 1942

Resolution #2: I will save more money this year. Saving money is always a big New Year’s resolution. This is a photographic cover, rather than an artist illustration, which was rare for the 1940’s. But everyone was being encouraged to buy bonds for the war effort and this handsome young man was doing his part. We’ve really become soft…our goal now is to cut down on a few overpriced lattes.

Mom’s Helper by Norman Rockwell

Mom's Helper
Norman Rockwell
January 29, 1921

Resolution #3: I will read more. I will improve my mind! This 1921 cover by Norman Rockwell shows a young man with two resolutions: to help mom with the chores and to be well-read. Actually, peeling potatoes was probably mom’s idea. Combining the tasks, however, is not safe, as the bandaged thumb indicates. Sometimes a good story is hard to put down. But, dude, when the chore involves a knife…

Fall Gab Session by Constantin Alajalov

Fall Gab Session
Constantin Alajolov
November 7, 1953

Resolved: I will not gossip. Did you see the way that Smith boy and that Jones girl were looking at each other? Why, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were wedding bells ahead. This is strictly confidential, of course.

After Dinner Dishes by Stevan Dohanos

After Dinner Dishers
Stevan Dohanos
January 8, 1949

I will keep the house looking like something out of a magazine. Only not this magazine. What is more discouraging than a pile of dirty dishes? We’ll tell you what – a pile of dirty dishes and a husband who thinks it’s his time to relax with the papers. The editors thoughtfully suggested she close the door while she’s cleaning up so as not to disturb him. This was said tongue-in-cheek. We think.

Sleeping at Opera by Charles A. MacLellan

Sleeping at the Opera
Charles A. MacCullan
March 24, 1923

Last, but not least: I resolve to get more rest. This is a noble goal, since experts tell us that most Americans don’t get enough sleep. But perhaps not at the theater, mister. Wives are known to have sharp elbows. It doesn’t look as if the glaring technique is going to work. This cover is from 1923.

Do you have a New Year’s resolution for 2011? Share them in the comments below.

Classic Covers: New Year’s Resolutions The Saturday Evening Post

Start today!

James suggests taping this list to the refrigerator and adopting one healthy habit a week:

• Begin each day with a good stretch and some deep breaths.
• Plan a week’s worth of meals on your day off.
• Spend 30 minutes twice a week cutting up fresh veggies to have ready for snacks and preparing meals. Next time you want scrambled eggs (or tofu), sauté some veggies first, then add eggs.
• Keep seasonal fruit on hand for when hunger (or a sweet tooth) strikes.
• Vary your food; if you eat it on Monday, don’t have it again until Friday.
• Eat at a table and chew well. Be thankful.
• Make your own vinaigrette with olive oil, lemon juice or vinegar, a little Dijon mustard, a minced garlic clove, and a pinch of salt and pepper.
• Sprinkle grated cheese on top of casseroles instead of mixing in larger amounts.
• Substitute raw nuts and seeds for processed granola bars.
• Have at least one day a week without meat—Meatless Monday, perhaps.
• Eat more leafy greens. Steam kale, chard, spinach, or radicchio, among others, for a couple minutes. Drain and set aside. Sauté some onions, garlic, and shitake mushrooms in olive oil for a few minutes. Add steamed greens, stir, and serve.
• Communicate well. Kindly speak your mind and be done with it. Don’t hold grudges. Forgive yourself and others.

12 Tips for Better Health The Saturday Evening Post

We offer it as a trivia challenge to historians, who should see how many of the references they understand. Several should be easy, such as President Taft, suffragettes, and the Wright Brothers, and others. But how many will ‘get’ the references to the Spanish revolution, “Mr. Raisuli,” Blériot, “Count Zep,” Payne, Hale, and “Brother Tilman.”

The World, the Flesh, and 1909, by Wallace Irwin, January 1, 1910

We also offer this in homage to “Ima Ryma,” who has regularly provided sonnetized commentary on our Retrospective articles. In the new year, we promise to write on subjects that are easier to rhyme than “Pinchot,” “Nixon,” and “Yuletide.”

Read the original poem, published in January 1, 1910 [PDF].

A Poem for the Passing of 2009 The Saturday Evening Post

Dr. Grossman’s 5 Resolutions for Health:

1.  Engage in a hobby. Reading, watching TV and movies, fishing, or gardening stimulate your mind and body, but  you might also wish to consider hobbies that help you develop special skills and learn something new such as photography, stamp or coin collecting, bird watching, sewing, or woodworking.

2.  Go on vacation. Taking time off is not optional—it’s critical to optimizing longevity. Americans who skip vacations are more likely to develop heart disease, have heart attacks, and die younger than those who take time to relax.

3.  Sleep between 7 and 8 hours a night. Research on twins shows that the ones who slept at least 7 hours tended to live longer than their counterparts who were not as well rested.

4.  Connect with other people. In his book, The Blue Zones, author Dan Buettner explores far flung regions of the world where people experience the greatest longevity–Loma Linda, California; Sardinia, Italy; Okinawa, Japan; and the Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rico. The common theme?  People who live in these areas have strong and lifelong connections with family, friends, church groups, and social organizations.

5.  Floss your teeth. Bacteria lodged in the recesses of gum tissue create inflammation, a key risk factor for heart disease and stoke. Regular flossing could add 6.4 years to your life, according to Dr. Michael F. Roizen, popular speaker and author of Real Age.

What is your strategy for a healthy and happy 2010? Post a comment to share your resolutions, challenges, and successes with other online readers.

Healthy New Year! The Saturday Evening Post

Welcoming in the New Year is a welcome break from homework. Miss Teen-babysitter has her glass of milk ready and is watching the revelers in living black and white. Even the little guy in the crib is awake for the excitement. This cover by artist Ben Prins is a quintessential 1950’s illustration: the home décor, the rolled-up jeans, and oxfords with bobby socks. Happy 1958!

Now, if that doesn’t sound like an exciting New Year’s celebration to you, consider the poor waiter on the December 31, 1949 cover by artist Constantin Alajalov. Not only does he have to work New Year’s Eve, but everybody except him has someone to kiss.

Okay, that’s sad, but at least he is in a festive environment. The same artist did a cover showing a “scrubwoman” waiting for the midnight countdown. All alone, maybe in the whole darn building, she hangs out the window, waiting to toot her horn when the clock does its thing. Now that’s sad.

Norman Rockwell shows us another waiter in a cover titled The Morning After. The setting is the Waldorf-Astoria in New York. The slump of the guy’s shoulders can only mean one thing: “Where do I begin?” Wherever you begin, make it a great year!

To browse our collection of covers or purchase your favorite, visit ShopThePost.com.

New Year's Eve Babysitter Ben Prins January 4, 1958	Midnight and Nobody to Kiss Constantin Alajalov December 31, 1949
Giant Clock on New Year's Eve Constantin Alajalov January 1, 1949	The Morning After Norman Rockwell December 29, 1945

How will you welcome 2010? Post a comment below to share your experiences and expectations.

Classic Covers: Welcome, New Year The Saturday Evening Post

Chinese Five Spice Edamame	Shrimp in Sherry-Garlic Sauce
Spanish Tortilla

Appetizing Ideas The Saturday Evening Post

—The Saturday Evening Post, January 1, 1949

Song for New Year’s Day, 1949 The Saturday Evening Post